A weekly update to the high-frequency indicators that will signal worsening or better economic recovery outcomes for the Orlando region, week of June 1.

In this weekly, special edition of the metro Orlando Market Overview, the Partnership research team analyzes select, high-frequency indicators* that will signal worsening or better outcomes for the region. The signs of a deepening recession or the beginning of a recovery will appear in these indicators before they are seen in a wider set of data sources.

These metrics will be updated on a weekly basis by the research team with the latest data available.

*Lags in data collection and publishing mean that many economic indicators will not begin to quantify the effects of a COVID-19 recession on the Orlando region until Q3 2020 and beyond.

Unemployment RateNew Claims for Unemployment InsuranceMonth to Month Job ChangeWeek to Week Job Postings
Metric16.2%21,782-183,2005,475
Rate of Change+12pp MoM-34% WoW-13.8% MoM+33% WoW
Date RangeAprilMay 23March-AprilMay 30
ReleasedMonthlyWeeklyMonthlyWeekly

Source: US Dept of Labor, FL DEO, Burning-Glass

Term Definitions:

  • MoM = Month-over-month
  • YoY = Year-over-year

Key Takeaways: Week of June 1, 2020

  1. No industry grew in employment from month-to-month, which signals the far-reaching economic impacts of this crisis. Five year’s worth of job gains were lost between March and April. Orange County sets the pace for MSA overall, specifically for claims for unemployment insurance.
  2. Orlando’s unemployment rate exceeds the nation and is higher than anything seen during the 2008 recession. Nationally, the most recent data began to show a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, with jobs returning in the Leisure and Hospitality industry. Expect Orlando’s unemployment rate to begin to decrease similarly.
  3. Job posting data reflects real-time labor market information and business reopening. Job posts declined sharply in late March and stayed down throughout April. At the end of May, job posts began to increase, signaling tentative, returning strength to the job market as the region began to reopen. Note: Job posts do not measure hires and may include companies who continue to post jobs but are on a hiring freeze.

1. Unemployment Rate

Preliminary Data for May 2020, NSA

060520 Unemployment Rate e1591635051787 2

Note: The U.S. unemployment rate for May is 13.3 percent. May data for Orlando will not be released until June 19. Expect Orlando’s unemployment rate to decrease in a similar fashion.

Preliminary Data for May 2020, NSA by County

060520 Unemployment Rate Counties e1591635163528 4

2. New Claims for Unemployment Insurance

U.S., 2019 – May 9, 2020

060520 New Claims for Unemployment Insurance USA 6
Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Florida, 2019 – May 23, 2020

060520 New Claims for Unemployment Insurance Florida 8
Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Orlando MSA March 7 – May 23, 2020

060520 New Claims for Unemployment Insurance MSA e1591634333880 10
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Orlando Counties, March 7 – May 23, 2020

060520 New Claims for Unemployment Insurance Counties e1591634254963 12
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

New Claims for Unemployment Insurance By County Week Ending May 23

060520 New Claims for Unemployment Insurance Counties by week e1591634123421 14
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Note: Data released weekly

3. Month to Month Job Change – By Industry

1-Month Change in Employment March-April 2020 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

060520 Month to Month Job Change By Industry 1 16
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Note: Next update June 19

4. Job Postings – Time Series Analysis

Total Online Job Ads, Orlando MSA, by Weekly Posted

060520 Job Postings e1591635848359 18
Source: Burning Glass

Jobs in Greatest Demand: Orlando MSA, Last 90 Days Ending May 30, 2020

060520 Job Postings Demand 20
Source: Burning Glass

Employers With Most Job Openings: Orlando MSA, Last 90 Days Ending May 30, 2020

060520 Job Postings Top Employers 22
Source: Burning Glass