A weekly update to high-frequency indicators through August 21 that will signal worsening or better economic recovery outcomes for the Orlando region.

In this weekly, special edition of the metro Orlando Market Overview, the Partnership research team analyzes select, high-frequency indicators* that will signal worsening or better outcomes for the region. The signs of a deepening recession or the beginning of a recovery will appear in these indicators before they are seen in a wider set of data sources.

Of note, the National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared the US economy in a recession on Monday, June 8. Starting in February, this recession ends a decade-long period of economic expansion and the longest in recorded US history.

The metrics provided below will be updated in new posts on a weekly basis by the research team with the latest data available.

*Lags in data collection and publishing mean that many economic indicators will not begin to quantify the effects of a COVID-19 recession on the Orlando region until Q3 2020 and beyond.

Download the Orlando MSA Market Overview August 21

	Unemployment Rate	New Claims for Unemployment Insurance	Month to Month Job Change	Week to Week Job Postings
Metric	15.3%	7,431	61,400	4,390
Rate of Change	-.8% MoM	-17.5% WoW	+5.4% MoM -9.0% YoY	-40.4% WoW
Date Range	June	July 25	May-June	August 1
Released	Monthly	Weekly	Monthly	Weekly

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, FL DEO, Burning-Glass

Term Definitions:

WoW = Week-over-week
MoM = Month-over-month
YoY = Year-over-year

Key Takeaways: Week ending August 21, 2020

In July, the USA unemployment rate fell modestly to 10.2% while Florida saw an increase to a rate of 11.5%. Higher than both the State and the Nation, the Orlando MSA unemployment rate did at least fall 0.8 percentage points to 15.3%. Orange, Osceola and Lake County all saw a decrease in their unemployment rate while Seminole was the only county to see a slight increase. This fall is due to 61,400 jobs added in the region from June to July, mainly in the Leisure and Hospitality industry. Jobs were also added within Professional and Business Services and Educational and Heath Services. Construction, however, was the only industry to experience a significant loss of jobs in the Orlando MSA, with total employment declining by more than 3,000 from June to July.
New claims for unemployment insurance saw an increase in both Florida and the USA. Although number of USA claims had fallen below 1 million last week since it was first recorded at 2.9 million in late March, claims this week increased to over 1 million. Overall, in Florida there has been a large drop in new claims for unemployment insurance since July 11th. For the first time in weeks, Florida saw an increase in claims the week ending August 15th. In the Orlando MSA, claims for unemployment are slowly declining, with a three-week moving average of roughly 9,000 claims per week. However, the most recent claims data available at the county level was posted July 25th by the FL Department of Economic Opportunity.
Job posting data reflects real-time labor market information and business reopening. In the most recent week, job postings saw a sharp decrease of 40%. Posting activity declined in retail trade, education and health care, the major contributor to movements in overall posting activity. Employers in the public education and hospital and health care industries continue to be the major job posters in the region. Note: Job posts do not measure hires and may include companies who continue to post jobs but are on a hiring freeze.

1. Unemployment Rate

2019-2020, NSA

082120 Unemp Rate NSA 1 3 — Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Note: The U.S. unemployment rate for July is 10.2% with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suggesting it could be up to 1 point higher due to a misclassification of “absent” workers. The noted, possible rate from the BLS is included on the gray, dashed line.