A weekly update to high-frequency indicators through August 27 that will signal worsening or better economic recovery outcomes for the Orlando region.
In this weekly, special edition of the metro Orlando Market Overview, the Partnership research team analyzes select, high-frequency indicators* that will signal worsening or better outcomes for the region. The signs of a deepening recession or the beginning of a recovery will appear in these indicators before they are seen in a wider set of data sources.
Of note, the National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared the US economy in a recession on Monday, June 8. Starting in February, this recession ends a decade-long period of economic expansion and the longest in recorded US history.
The metrics provided below will be updated in new posts on a weekly basis by the research team with the latest data available.
*Lags in data collection and publishing mean that many economic indicators will not begin to quantify the effects of a COVID-19 recession on the Orlando region until Q3 2020 and beyond.
|Unemployment Rate||New Claims for Unemployment Insurance||Month to Month Job Change||Week to Week Job Postings|
|Rate of Change||-.8% MoM||+30.4% WoW||+5.4% MoM|
|Date Range||June||August 15||June-July||August 22|
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, FL DEO, Burning-Glass
- WoW = Week-over-week
- MoM = Month-over-month
- YoY = Year-over-year
Key Takeaways: Week ending August 27, 2020
- In July, the U.S. unemployment rate fell modestly to 10.2% while Florida saw an increase to a rate of 11.5%. Higher than both the State and the Nation, the Orlando MSA unemployment rate did at least fall 0.8 percentage points to 15.3% (slide 4). Orange, Osceola and Lake County all saw a decrease in their unemployment rate while Seminole was the only county to see a slight increase (slide 5). This fall is due to 61,400 jobs added in the region from June to July, mainly in the Leisure and Hospitality industry (slide 9). Jobs were also added within Professional and Business Services and Educational and Heath Services. Construction, however, was the only industry to experience a significant loss of jobs in the Orlando MSA, with total employment declining by more than 3,000 from June to July.
- New claims for unemployment insurance saw a decrease in both Florida and the U.S. (slide 6). Although number of U.S. claims had fallen below 1 million since it was first recorded at 2.9 million in late March, claims this week remained over 1 million. Overall, in Florida there has been a large drop in new claims for unemployment insurance since July 11th. This week, claims decreased after experiencing a slight increase last week. In the Orlando MSA, claims for unemployment are slowly declining, with a three-week moving average of roughly 5,600 claims per week. However, the latest data available shows that last week’s claims saw a slight increase particularly in Orange County.
- Job posting data reflects real-time labor market information and business reopening. In the most recent week, job postings saw a sharp increase of forty two percent. Slide 11 shows this information broken out by top industries. Posting activity saw the largest increase in retail trade, education and health care, the major contributors to movements in overall posting activity. Employers in the public education and hospital and health care industries continue to be the major job posters in the region. Note: Job posts do not measure hires and may include companies who continue to post jobs but are on a hiring freeze.
1. Unemployment Rate
Note: The U.S. unemployment rate for July is 10.2% with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suggesting it could be up to 1 point higher due to a misclassification of “absent” workers. The noted, possible rate from the BLS is included on the gray, dashed line.
2019-2020, NSA by County
2. New Claims for Unemployment Insurance
U.S., January 2020 – August 22, 2020
Florida, January 2019 – August 22, 2020
Orlando MSA March 7 – August 15, 2020
Orlando Counties, March 7 – August 15, 2020
3. Month-to-Month Job Change – By Industry
1- Month Change in Employment , June-July 2020 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Next Update: August data released September 18