A weekly update to high-frequency indicators through August 7 that will signal worsening or better economic recovery outcomes for the Orlando region.
In this weekly, special edition of the metro Orlando Market Overview, the Partnership research team analyzes select, high-frequency indicators* that will signal worsening or better outcomes for the region. The signs of a deepening recession or the beginning of a recovery will appear in these indicators before they are seen in a wider set of data sources.
Of note, the National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared the US economy in a recession on Monday, June 8. Starting in February, this recession ends a decade-long period of economic expansion and the longest in recorded US history.
The metrics provided below will be updated in new posts on a weekly basis by the research team with the latest data available.
*Lags in data collection and publishing mean that many economic indicators will not begin to quantify the effects of a COVID-19 recession on the Orlando region until Q3 2020 and beyond.
|Unemployment Rate||New Claims for Unemployment Insurance||Month to Month Job Change||Week to Week Job Postings|
|Rate of Change||-4.6pp MoM||-17.5% WoW||+2.8% MoM|
|Date Range||June||July 25||May-June||August 1|
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, FL DEO, Burning-Glass
- MoM = Month-over-month
- YoY = Year-over-year
Key Takeaways: Week ending August 7, 2020
- The USA unemployment rate fell modestly to 10.2% in July, while the economy added 1.8 million jobs. Notable job gains occurred in Leisure and Hospitality, Government, Retail Trade, Professional and Business Services, Other Services and Health Care. In June, the economy added 4.8 million jobs, 3 million more than this month, signaling a slowdown in the recovery’s momentum as surges in case numbers impact the job market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the number of unemployed persons on temporary layoff decreased by 1.3 million to 9.2 million while the number of permanent job losers remained unchanged at 2.9 million.
- New claims for unemployment insurance saw a decrease in both Florida and the USA (slide 6). The number of USA claims has yet to fall below 1 million a week since it was first recorded at 2.9 million in late March. In Florida, weekly data are bouncing along, but have yet to level or bottom out. The previous two weeks of drops in Florida hopefully point to further declines. In the Orlando MSA, claims for unemployment are slowly declining, with a three-week moving average of roughly 9,000 claims per week.
- Job posting data reflects real-time labor market information and business reopening. In the most recent week, job postings fell by six percent. Slide 11 shows this information broken out by top industries. Posting activity rose in retail trade and education but fell in health care, the major contributor to movements in overall posting activity. Employers in the public education and hospital and health care industries continue to be the major job posters in the region. Note: Job posts do not measure hires and may include companies who continue to post jobs but are on a hiring freeze.
1. Unemployment Rate
Note: The U.S. unemployment rate for July is 10.2 percent, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suggesting it could be up to 1 point higher due to a misclassification of “absent” workers. The noted, possible rate from the BLS is included on the gray, dashed line.
2019-2020, NSA by County
2. New Claims for Unemployment Insurance
U.S., January 2020 – August 1, 2020
Florida, January 2019 – August 1, 2020
Orlando MSA March 7 – July 25, 2020
Orlando Counties, March 7 – July 25, 2020
3. Month to Month Job Change – By Industry
1-Month Change in Employment May-June 2020 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Next Update: July data released August 21