A weekly update to high-frequency indicators through June 11 that will signal worsening or better economic recovery outcomes for the Orlando region.
In this weekly, special edition of the metro Orlando Market Overview, the Partnership research team analyzes select, high-frequency indicators* that will signal worsening or better outcomes for the region. The signs of a deepening recession or the beginning of a recovery will appear in these indicators before they are seen in a wider set of data sources.
Of note, the National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared the US economy in a recession on Monday, June 8. Starting in February, this recession ends a decade long period of economic expansion and the longest in recorded US history.
The metrics provided below will be updated in new posts on a weekly basis by the research team with the latest data available.
*Lags in data collection and publishing mean that many economic indicators will not begin to quantify the effects of a COVID-19 recession on the Orlando region until Q3 2020 and beyond.
|Unemployment Rate||New Claims for Unemployment Insurance||Month to Month Job Change||Week to Week Job Postings|
|Rate of Change||+12pp MoM||+31.1% WoW||-13.8% MoM||+0% WoW|
|Date Range||April||May 30||March-April||June 6|
Source: US Dept of Labor, FL DEO, Burning-Glass
- MoM = Month-over-month
- YoY = Year-over-year
Key Takeaways: Week of June 1, 2020
- No industry grew in employment from month-to-month, which signals the far-reaching economic impacts of this crisis. Five year’s worth of job gains were lost between March and April. Orange County sets the pace for MSA overall, specifically for claims for unemployment insurance.
- Orlando’s unemployment rate exceeds the nation and is higher than anything seen during the 2008 recession. Nationally, the most recent data began to show a slight decrease in the unemployment rate. However, reactions are mixed about how close this is to the actual unemployment rate, the national rate could be three points higher. Volatile times create volatile data. Either way, this is higher than any rate seen during the 2008 recession.
- Job posting data reflects real-time labor market information and business reopening. Job posts declined sharply in late March and stayed down throughout April. At the end of May, job posts began to increase, signaling tentative, returning strength to the job market as the region began to reopen. The most recent week shows a flattening in the number of active posts. Note: Job posts do not measure hires and may include companies who continue to post jobs but are on a hiring freeze. Top job posters are mainly in the healthcare space, along with retail, defense, and leisure and hospitality.
1. Unemployment Rate
Preliminary Data for May 2020, NSA
Note: The U.S. unemployment rate for May is 13.3 percent, with some economists suggesting it should be three percentage points higher due to a misclassification of “absent” workers . May data for Orlando will not be released until June 19th.
Preliminary Data for May 2020, NSA by County
2. New Claims for Unemployment Insurance
U.S., 2019 – May 30, 2020
Florida, 2019 – May 30, 2020
Orlando MSA March 7 – May 30, 2020
Orlando Counties, March 7 – May 30, 2020
New Claims for Unemployment Insurance By County Week Ending May 30, 2020
Note: Data released weekly
3. Month to Month Job Change – By Industry
1-Month Change in Employment March-April 2020 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Note: Next update June 19