A weekly update to high-frequency indicators through September 4 that will signal worsening or better economic recovery outcomes for the Orlando region.
In this weekly, special edition of the metro Orlando Market Overview, the Partnership research team analyzes select, high-frequency indicators* that will signal worsening or better outcomes for the region. The signs of a deepening recession or the beginning of a recovery will appear in these indicators before they are seen in a wider set of data sources.
Of note, the National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared the US economy in a recession on Monday, June 8. Starting in February, this recession ends a decade-long period of economic expansion and the longest in recorded US history.
The metrics provided below will be updated in new posts on a weekly basis by the research team with the latest data available.
*Lags in data collection and publishing mean that many economic indicators will not begin to quantify the effects of a COVID-19 recession on the Orlando region until Q3 2020 and beyond.
|Unemployment Rate||New Claims for Unemployment Insurance||Month to Month Job Change||Week to Week Job Postings|
|Rate of Change||-.8% MoM||+30.4% WoW||+5.4% MoM|
|Date Range||June||August 15||June-July||August 29|
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, FL DEO, Burning-Glass
- WoW = Week-over-week
- MoM = Month-over-month
- YoY = Year-over-year
Key Takeaways: Week ending September 4, 2020
- In July, the U.S. unemployment rate fell modestly to 10.2 percent while Florida saw an increase to a rate of 11.5 percent. Higher than both the State and the Nation, the Orlando MSA unemployment rate did at least fall 0.8 percentage points to 15.3 percent (slide 4). Orange, Osceola and Lake County all saw a decrease in their unemployment rate while Seminole was the only county to see a slight increase (slide 5). This fall is due to 61,400 jobs added in the region from June to July, mainly in the Leisure and Hospitality industry (slide 9). Jobs were also added within Professional and Business Services, and Educational and Heath Services. Construction, however, was the only industry to experience a significant loss of jobs in the Orlando MSA, with total employment declining by more than 3,000 from June to July.
- New claims for unemployment insurance continue to decrease in both Florida and the U.S. (slide 6). The number of U.S. claims once again fell below 1 million since initially recorded the first week of August. For the first time, claims reached its lowest point at 881,000 since the start of the pandemic. U.S. claims had consistently remained over 1 million but are now much more solidly trending downward. In Florida, there has been a consistent drop in new claims for unemployment insurance. This week, claims decreased, for the second week in row, to less than 40,000. In the Orlando MSA, claims for unemployment are slowly declining, with a three-week moving average of roughly 5,600 claims per week. However, the latest data available shows that claims saw a slight increase the week of August 15, particularly in Orange County.
- Job posting data reflects real-time labor market information and business reopening. In the most recent week, job postings continue to increase, growing by four percent. Slide 11 shows this information broken out by top industries. Posting activity saw the largest increase in health care and social assistance, retail trade, and educational services, the major contributors to movements in overall posting activity. Employers in the hospital and health care industries continue to be the major job posters in the region by large margins. Note: Job posts do not measure hires and may include companies who continue to post jobs but are on a hiring freeze.
1. Unemployment Rate
Note: The U.S. unemployment rate for July is 10.2% with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suggesting it could be up to 1 point higher due to a misclassification of “absent” workers. The noted, possible rate from the BLS is included on the gray, dashed line.
2019-2020, NSA by County
2. New Claims for Unemployment Insurance
U.S., January 2020 – August 29, 2020
Florida, January 2019 – August 29, 2020
Orlando MSA March 7 – August 15, 2020
Orlando Counties, March 7 – August 15, 2020
3. Month-to-Month Job Change – By Industry
1- Month Change in Employment , June-July 2020 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Next Update: August data released September 18