Florida and Orlando continued to outperform the broader U.S. economy in 2025 despite widespread economic uncertainty. In 2026, we look for the Orlando region to again be among the nation’s growth centers.
Five projections for the region’s economy in the coming year:
1. Orlando will be among the fastest-growing large economies in the nation.
Even as employment growth cools nationwide, Orlando should again be among the fastest-growing markets in the country. The latest UCF forecast projects local employment growth of 1.3% in 2026 – above the statewide rate of 0.8% and national rate of 0.5% – while a longer-term forecast confirms Orlando will be Florida’s leading growth center over the next decade, adding more jobs than Miami (with twice the population) and more than Tampa and Jacksonville combined.
In 2026, the ‘Orlando factor’ will be alive and well as the region’s strong fundamentals help navigate a wider employment slowdown.
2. Uncertainty will persist – but its impact will fade.
2025 was marked by heightened volatility that weighed on local business confidence for much of the year. By Q4, however, Orlando businesses reported increased confidence in their own prospects as their strong performance allowed them to overlook the broader uncertainty that continued to suppress their confidence in the U.S. economy.
In 2026, look for uncertainty to remain elevated but no longer paralyzing as companies further normalize volatility and begin to move on delayed growth ambitions.
3. Job growth will enter a new era.
The feverish pace of job growth coming out of the pandemic was never sustainable and 2025 (while not yet complete in data terms due to the government shutdown) brought a slowdown in local job growth.
As 2026 begins, the U.S. economy is widely expected to be entering a period of slower employment growth as the labor market runs up against structural constraints – a growing volume of retirements, increased automation, and productivity gains that mean employers will be seeking to generate more output with fewer new workers.
In 2026, look for Orlando to fare better than most regions but not to be completely immune from these trends, with job growth broadly consistent with 2025 levels.
4. Artificial intelligence will play a role in the slowdown.
AI was THE hot topic in 2025. While its ultimate impact on the labor market and the Orlando economy in particular remains to be seen, local employers appear to be preparing to navigate its adoption. Demand for AI skills in the region exploded in the last 18 months as overall hiring demand stayed broadly consistent. The number of local monthly job postings seeking AI skills has doubled in the last 2 years, increasing to more than 1,000 by late 2025.
As companies look to do more with less in 2026, look for AI fluency to become a differentiating skill in the labor market – and for businesses to begin the hard work of figuring out how AI can deliver productivity gains.
5. March will be an important month.
Late March will see the release of new Census population estimates at the local level. A continuation of recent growth could see Orlando become a region of 3 million people but it will be the composition of gains that will be most telling. The last few years have seen a slowdown in domestic migration but surging international migration and this upcoming release (when considered in the context of cost increases and a different political environment) will go some way to determining whether these demographic shifts are temporary or part of a longer-term trend.
In 2026, look for clarity on the region’s evolving identity and a better understanding of our competitive position post-pandemic.
Whatever 2026 brings, the path forward is clear: Orlando must seek to build a region and value proposition so compelling that it attracts world-class businesses and talent regardless of external forces.
The Orlando 2045 regional vision, launched in May 2025, laid out a shared vision for Orlando’s future as a global, creative capital. What’s required in 2026 is execution and a commitment to the bold moves necessary to make that vision a reality.
Market Commentaries are a series of timely analyses produced by the Orlando Economic Partnership’s Research & Strategy team. Commentaries are typically associated with a major data release or cover areas key to advancing the Partnership’s goal of Broad-based Prosperity®.
