A weekly update to high-frequency indicators through June 25 that will signal worsening or better economic recovery outcomes for the Orlando region.
In this weekly, special edition of the metro Orlando Market Overview, the Partnership research team analyzes select, high-frequency indicators* that will signal worsening or better outcomes for the region. The signs of a deepening recession or the beginning of a recovery will appear in these indicators before they are seen in a wider set of data sources.
Of note, the National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared the US economy in a recession on Monday, June 8. Starting in February, this recession ends a decade long period of economic expansion and the longest in recorded US history.
The metrics provided below will be updated in new posts on a weekly basis by the research team with the latest data available.
*Lags in data collection and publishing mean that many economic indicators will not begin to quantify the effects of a COVID-19 recession on the Orlando region until Q3 2020 and beyond.
|Unemployment Rate||New Claims for Unemployment Insurance||Month to Month Job Change||Week to Week Job Postings|
|Rate of Change||+5.8pp MoM||-24.7% WoW||-4.9% MoM|
|Date Range||May||June 13||April-May||June 20|
Source: US Dept of Labor, FL DEO, Burning-Glass
- MoM = Month-over-month
- YoY = Year-over-year
Key Takeaways: Week of June 1, 2020
- The Orlando unemployment rate soared to 22.6 percent from April to May, representing 300,700 unemployed persons currently in the labor force. For context, the US reached an unemployment rate of 24.9 percent during the Great Depression. Orlando currently has the highest unemployment rate of any metropolitan area in Florida, followed by the neighboring Lakeland MSA with a rate of 19.1 percent.
- New claims for unemployment insurance have been dropping from their weekly peak in late April, both nationally and in Florida. However, the number of new claims does not seem to be returning to pre-pandemic levels, instead bottoming out at 1.5M (US) and 93K Florida in the most recent weeks (slide 6). This signals continued impacts from COVID-19 beyond just the spike seen during the height of shutdowns. Now, as economies reopen, there are still new claims for unemployment insurance being submitted.
- Small signs of good news appear in increasing employment in certain industries (slide 10) where last month not a single industry grew. Increases in employment appeared from April to May in retail trade, business services, education and healthcare, construction, and financial activities etc. The Leisure and Hospitality industry continues to see employment declines, decreasing overall employment by 59 percent year-over-year. This industry includes restaurants, bars, museums, hotels, theme parks etc.
- Job posting data reflects real-time labor market information and business reopening. Job posts declined sharply in late March and stayed down throughout April. At the end of May, job posts began to increase, signaling tentative, returning strength to the job market as the region began to reopen. The most recent week shows an increase in the number of active posts. Note: Job posts do not measure hires and may include companies who continue to post jobs but are on a hiring freeze. Top job posters are mainly in the healthcare space, along with defense and public education.
1. Unemployment Rate
Note: The U.S. unemployment rate for May is 13.3% with the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS) suggesting it should be 3 points higher due to a misclassification of “absent” workers. The noted, possible rate from the BLS is included on the gray, dashed line.
2019-2020, NSA by County
2. New Claims for Unemployment Insurance
U.S., Jan 2020 – June 20, 2020
Florida, 2019 – June 20, 2020
Orlando MSA March 7 – June 13, 2020
Note: Cumulative claims for unemployment insurance from March 7 – June 13 are 332,430 (25 percent of the labor force). This is not the same number as the unemployment rate.
Orlando Counties, March 7 – June 13, 2020
Cumulative Initial Claims for Unemployment By County: March 7 – June 13
Note: Data released weekly
3. Month to Month Job Change – By Industry
1-Month Change in Employment April-May 2020 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Note: Next update July 17