A weekly update to high-frequency indicators through June 25 that will signal worsening or better economic recovery outcomes for the Orlando region.

In this weekly, special edition of the metro Orlando Market Overview, the Partnership research team analyzes select, high-frequency indicators* that will signal worsening or better outcomes for the region. The signs of a deepening recession or the beginning of a recovery will appear in these indicators before they are seen in a wider set of data sources.

Of note, the National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared the US economy in a recession on Monday, June 8. Starting in February, this recession ends a decade long period of economic expansion and the longest in recorded US history.

The metrics provided below will be updated in new posts on a weekly basis by the research team with the latest data available.

*Lags in data collection and publishing mean that many economic indicators will not begin to quantify the effects of a COVID-19 recession on the Orlando region until Q3 2020 and beyond.

Download the Orlando MSA Market Overview June 19

	Unemployment Rate	New Claims for Unemployment Insurance	Month to Month Job Change	Week to Week Job Postings
Metric	22.6%	11,307	-57,200	6,221
Rate of Change	+5.8pp MoM	-24.7% WoW	-4.9% MoM -16.4% YoY	+8.64% WoW
Date Range	May	June 13	April-May	June 20
Released	Monthly	Weekly	Monthly	Weekly

Source: US Dept of Labor, FL DEO, Burning-Glass

Term Definitions:

MoM = Month-over-month
YoY = Year-over-year

Key Takeaways: Week of June 1, 2020

The Orlando unemployment rate soared to 22.6 percent from April to May, representing 300,700 unemployed persons currently in the labor force. For context, the US reached an unemployment rate of 24.9 percent during the Great Depression. Orlando currently has the highest unemployment rate of any metropolitan area in Florida, followed by the neighboring Lakeland MSA with a rate of 19.1 percent.
New claims for unemployment insurance have been dropping from their weekly peak in late April, both nationally and in Florida. However, the number of new claims does not seem to be returning to pre-pandemic levels, instead bottoming out at 1.5M (US) and 93K Florida in the most recent weeks (slide 6). This signals continued impacts from COVID-19 beyond just the spike seen during the height of shutdowns. Now, as economies reopen, there are still new claims for unemployment insurance being submitted.
Small signs of good news appear in increasing employment in certain industries (slide 10) where last month not a single industry grew. Increases in employment appeared from April to May in retail trade, business services, education and healthcare, construction, and financial activities etc. The Leisure and Hospitality industry continues to see employment declines, decreasing overall employment by 59 percent year-over-year. This industry includes restaurants, bars, museums, hotels, theme parks etc.
Job posting data reflects real-time labor market information and business reopening. Job posts declined sharply in late March and stayed down throughout April. At the end of May, job posts began to increase, signaling tentative, returning strength to the job market as the region began to reopen. The most recent week shows an increase in the number of active posts. Note: Job posts do not measure hires and may include companies who continue to post jobs but are on a hiring freeze. Top job posters are mainly in the healthcare space, along with defense and public education.

1. Unemployment Rate

2019-2020, NSA

061920 Unemployment Rate NSA 2 — Source: BLS, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Note: The U.S. unemployment rate for May is 13.3% with the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS) suggesting it should be 3 points higher due to a misclassification of “absent” workers. The noted, possible rate from the BLS is included on the gray, dashed line.

2019-2020, NSA by County

061920 Counties Unemployment Rate 4 — *Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity*

2. New Claims for Unemployment Insurance

U.S., Jan 2020 – June 20, 2020

062520 New Claims for Unemployment Insurance USA 6 — *Source: U.S. Department of Labor*

Florida, 2019 – June 20, 2020

062520 New Claims for Unemployment Insurance FL 8 — *Source: U.S. Department of Labor*

Orlando MSA March 7 – June 13, 2020

062520 New Claims for Unemployment Insurance Orlando MSA 10 — *Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity*

Note: Cumulative claims for unemployment insurance from March 7 – June 13 are 332,430 (25 percent of the labor force). This is not the same number as the unemployment rate.